Why is the lithium market oversupplied?

The lithium market has been oversupplied for several years, in part due to expectations of huge increases in demand for lithium driven by the energy transition.

How much does lithium hydroxide cost in 2024?

Fastmarkets assessment of lithium hydroxide’s spot price CIF China, Japan and South Korea fell to $8-9 per kg on November 12, 2024, the lowest range for battery-grade lithium hydroxide in the region since Fastmarkets launched its prices in 2017. Since then, hydroxide prices have recovered slightly.

Will the lithium market be tighter this year?

Fastmarkets’ research team forecasted that the lithium market recorded a surplus of around 175,000 tonnes in 2023, and almost 154,000 tonnes in 2024 based on current available data. But there is a growing sense among market participants and industry analysts that the market balance could be much tighter this year.

How will China impact the lithium-ion battery supply chain?

This potential technology export ban could have significant ramifications on the global lithium-ion battery supply chain, with China dominating the space and many western companies seeking Chinese expertise to support the development of projects.

Why did Lithium prices fall in 2024?

Lithium prices were in steep decline throughout most of 2024 – largely because of an oversupplied market – in stark contrast to their rapid rise to all-time highs in 2021-2023. By the end of 2024, the combination of slowing EV demand growth, oversupply and battery cost pressures led to lithium salts prices falling rapidly.

Are spodumene and lithium salt in a cost curve?

At current spot lithium salt and spodumene prices, the industry is reportedly deep into the cost curve, and both hardrock producers and brine and hardrock producers alike have, for the most part, made capital expenditure adjustments for 2025, which has, in turn, cut Fastmarkets’ supply forecast.